Trump-Backed Asfura Holds Slim Lead in Honduras Presidential Race

A narrow lead for conservative candidate Nasry Asfura in Honduras’s presidential election has emerged, according to partial results released by the National Electoral Council (CNE) on March 12, 2024. Asfura, who received approximately 40 percent of the votes, is just 0.2 percentage points ahead of his right-wing rival Salvador Nasralla, with 56 percent of the votes counted. The election results indicate a distinct preference for conservative candidates, as both Asfura and Nasralla lead Rixi Moncada of the ruling leftist Libre party by more than 20 percentage points.

The election campaign has been notably influenced by Donald Trump, who threatened to cut aid to Honduras if Asfura did not secure victory. The slow pace of the vote count, which may take several days to finalize, has raised concerns about the electoral process in a nation historically challenged by violence and corruption. Many Hondurans have fled the country due to poverty and gang violence, seeking refuge in the United States, a route that has become increasingly complicated under Trump’s policies.

In the lead-up to the election, Trump publicly endorsed Asfura, the former mayor of Tegucigalpa, whose campaign slogan, “Grandad, at your service!” resonated with many voters. Trump’s comments on social media suggested that a loss for Asfura would prevent further U.S. aid: “If he doesn’t win, the United States will not be throwing good money after bad.” Such statements mark another instance of U.S. intervention in Latin American politics, reminiscent of Trump’s involvement in supporting Argentine president Javier Milei during recent elections.

Public Reactions and Concerns

Before the election day, Trump also announced his intention to pardon former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez, who is currently serving a 45-year prison sentence in the United States for drug trafficking. This announcement was met with mixed reactions among Hondurans. While some believe it could lead to more favorable conditions for migrants, others view it as unwarranted interference in their political process. “I vote for whomever I please, not because of what Trump has said,” remarked Esmeralda Rodriguez, a 56-year-old fruit seller.

In the backdrop of this election, nearly 30,000 Honduran migrants have faced deportation from the U.S. since Trump’s return to office in January 2023. This has significantly impacted Honduras, a country of 11 million people, where remittances constituted 27 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) last year.

Campaign Issues and Voter Sentiment

Rixi Moncada, representing the ruling Libre party, framed the election as a critical moment for Hondurans, casting it as a choice between progress and a “coup-plotting oligarchy.” This statement references the political turmoil following the military coup that ousted former president Manuel Zelaya in 2009. Both the ruling and opposition parties have made preemptive accusations of potential election fraud, contributing to an atmosphere of mistrust ahead of the final results.

As Honduras grapples with rampant drug trafficking, poverty, and violence, candidates have largely avoided addressing these pressing issues throughout the campaign. “I hope the new government will have good lines of communication with Trump,” said Maria Velasquez, a 58-year-old resident, expressing her desire for support in escaping poverty.

As the country awaits the final election results, the outcome of this closely contested race could signal a shift in Honduras’s political landscape, as well as its relations with the United States. With the stakes high, the international community watches closely as the situation unfolds.