Construction Surge at Israel’s Dimona Nuclear Facility Raises Concerns

Construction has significantly intensified at the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona, a site long associated with Israel’s suspected nuclear weapons program. Satellite images analyzed by experts indicate the groundwork for a new structure, prompting speculation about its purpose, which could range from a new reactor to a facility for assembling nuclear arms.

The images, taken on July 5 by Planet Labs PBC, reveal the construction of thick concrete walls and multiple floors underground, suggesting a sizable project is underway. Satellite analysis shows cranes and heavy machinery at the site, which is located approximately 90 kilometers (55 miles) south of Jerusalem. This development could renew international scrutiny of Israel’s nuclear capabilities, especially following recent military actions involving Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Seven experts who examined the satellite images agree that the construction is likely linked to Israel’s nuclear program due to its proximity to the existing reactor at Dimona. However, opinions diverge on the specific nature of the new construction. Three experts indicated that the size and configuration point towards a new heavy water reactor, which is capable of producing plutonium—an essential material for nuclear weapons. The other four experts acknowledged this possibility but also suggested it might be related to assembling nuclear arms, emphasizing the uncertainty stemming from the project’s early stage.

“It’s probably a reactor,” stated Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. He based his assessment on the construction’s context and its historical ties to Dimona, where no civilian power plant exists. “It’s very hard to imagine it is anything else,” he added.

Israel has maintained a policy of nuclear ambiguity for decades, neither confirming nor denying the existence of atomic weapons. The Israeli government did not respond to requests for comment on the recent construction, nor did the White House, a key ally of Israel.

This construction comes in the wake of military actions in June, when Israel and the United States targeted Iranian nuclear sites amid fears that Iran could develop nuclear weapons. Among the targets was Iran’s heavy water reactor at Arak, which has drawn significant international attention.

The facility at Dimona has been operating since the 1960s and is believed to have a role in Israel’s nuclear arsenal. The current heavy water reactor has far exceeded its expected operational lifespan, leading to speculation that replacement or significant upgrades may be necessary soon. “Based on the location, size, and general lack of construction there, it’s more likely a reactor than anything,” noted Lewis.

Another nuclear expert, Edwin Lyman from the Union of Concerned Scientists, echoed similar sentiments, stating that the construction might represent a box-shaped reactor lacking a visible containment dome. He emphasized the opacity of Israel’s nuclear program complicates definitive assessments. “Israel doesn’t allow any international inspections or verification of what it’s doing, which forces the public to speculate,” Lyman remarked.

The secrecy surrounding Dimona has long been a subject of intrigue. In the 1980s, a whistleblower disclosed details and photographs of the facility, leading experts to estimate that Israel possesses dozens of nuclear warheads. This new construction could serve multiple purposes; it may allow Israel to maintain its capability to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons or to upgrade its existing arsenal.

According to Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, if the new structure is indeed a heavy water reactor, it would enable Israel to continue producing spent fuel for plutonium extraction. “Or they are building a facility to maintain their arsenal or build additional warheads,” he said.

Heavy water reactors like the one at Dimona can be utilized for scientific research, but they are also critical for producing plutonium, which is essential for nuclear weaponry. Tritium, another byproduct, can enhance the explosive power of nuclear warheads.

Estimating the size of Israel’s nuclear arsenal remains challenging due to the state’s secrecy. A report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in 2022 estimated Israel has around 90 nuclear warheads. The construction at Dimona may be motivated by the need to produce more tritium, as it decays at a rate of approximately 5% per year. “If they’re building a new production reactor, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re looking to expand the plutonium they have, but to manufacture tritium,” Lyman explained.

Israel began establishing its nuclear site in the late 1950s, a time marked by regional conflicts following its founding in 1948. The policy of nuclear ambiguity has been credited with deterring adversaries, and Israel is one of nine countries known or suspected to possess nuclear weapons. It remains one of only four nations that have never signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear arms.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, has no authority to inspect Dimona, as Israel is not obligated to disclose information about its nuclear facilities beyond its Soreq research reactor. In response to inquiries about the current construction, the IAEA reiterated that Israel is not required to provide information about its other nuclear sites.

The unfolding situation at Dimona underscores the ongoing complexities surrounding Israel’s nuclear ambitions and the broader implications for regional security. As construction progresses, the international community will be closely monitoring developments at this pivotal site.