Missouri Lawmakers Redraw Congressional Districts in Special Session

Missouri lawmakers are convening in a special session to redraw the state’s U.S. House districts, a move aligned with former President Donald Trump‘s initiative to enhance Republican prospects ahead of the 2024 elections. This session, called by Republican Governor Mike Kehoe, is set to begin at noon on Wednesday and will last at least one week.

Missouri becomes the third state to undertake mid-decade redistricting aimed at gaining partisan advantage. Following Texas, where the Republican majority aims to secure five additional congressional seats with a new map, Missouri’s actions reflect a broader trend where redistricting efforts are increasingly influenced by political motives. In contrast, California has countered with its own redistricting plan, seeking to add five more seats for Democrats, pending voter approval in a November 4 election.

Nationally, Democrats need to gain three seats in the upcoming election to regain control of the House. Historically, the party holding the presidency tends to lose seats in midterm elections, making these efforts particularly crucial for both parties.

Every ten years, the Census Bureau collects population data that determines the allocation of the 435 U.S. House seats. States that experience population growth may gain seats, while those with stagnant or declining populations may lose representation. There are currently no federal restrictions that prevent states from redrawing district lines between census cycles. In many states, this process is overseen by state lawmakers, who must obtain approval from the governor. Some states utilize independent commissions for redistricting.

Partisan gerrymandering occurs when the political party in power manipulates district boundaries to secure electoral advantages. Techniques include “packing” opposition voters into fewer districts or “cracking” them across multiple districts to dilute their voting strength. In 2019, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that federal courts lack authority to intervene in claims of partisan gerrymandering, leaving those decisions to state courts to address under local laws.

Currently, Missouri’s U.S. House delegation includes six Republicans and two Democrats. The proposed map by Governor Kehoe aims to increase Republican representation to seven seats by modifying the Kansas City district, currently held by Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver. The plan would extend the district into Republican-leaning rural areas, while portions of Cleaver’s district would be reassigned to districts represented by Republican Representatives Mark Alford and Sam Graves. Adjustments will also occur in the St. Louis area, although changes to the district held by Democratic Representative Wesley Bell are expected to be minimal.

Initially, Republican lawmakers considered a more aggressive 7-1 map during the post-2020 census redistricting process. Concerns over potential legal challenges and the possibility of more competitive districts dissuaded them from pursuing this option, which could have resulted in Democrats winning up to three seats.

In Ohio, mid-decade redistricting is necessary due to the lack of bipartisan support for previously adopted congressional maps, which could provide Republicans an opportunity to expand their current 10-5 seat majority. Similarly, a court in Utah has mandated that the Republican-controlled Legislature redraw congressional districts, given their previous circumvention of an independent commission designed to prevent partisan favoritism. This new map could potentially benefit Democrats, as Republicans currently hold all four U.S. House seats in the state.

Other Republican-led states, such as Indiana and Florida, are also contemplating redistricting initiatives spurred by Trump’s influence. Conversely, officials in Democratic-led states like Illinois, Maryland, and New York are discussing strategies to counter Republican efforts with their own revised maps.

In addition to redistricting, Governor Kehoe’s special session agenda includes proposed changes to Missouri’s ballot measure process. One significant amendment would increase the threshold for ballot initiatives, requiring both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority in each congressional district for measures to pass. If this standard had been in place last year, an abortion-rights amendment would have failed, as it gained support primarily from urban areas while lacking backing in rural districts.

The outcomes of these redistricting efforts and ballot measure changes will significantly impact Missouri’s political landscape leading into the next election cycle.