Opposition Faces Challenges Ahead of Cameroon Election on Oct. 12

As Cameroon approaches a pivotal election on October 12, 2023, the nation’s opposition is grappling with significant setbacks. With Paul Biya, the world’s oldest president, poised to extend his nearly 43-year rule, the opposition faces a fractured landscape. Biya, aged 92, has governed since 1982 and is Africa’s second-longest-serving leader, trailing only Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea.

The recent disqualification of Maurice Kamto, the opposition’s most popular candidate, has intensified the struggle. Kamto, who garnered 14% of the vote in the last election, was barred from participating due to claims that his party, the African Movement for New Independence and Democracy, was also backing another candidate. Kamto’s legal team and party officials have rejected this reasoning, asserting that the decision is politically motivated.

The lack of a strong contender is evident as the remaining 11 candidates may dilute the opposition vote. Past elections in Cameroon have often been marred by allegations of irregularities, with the electoral commission frequently accused of bias towards Biya’s ruling party. Observers note that many election officials have previously held positions within Biya’s government, raising concerns about the integrity of the electoral process.

Despite these obstacles, analysts believe that a united opposition could pose a serious challenge to Biya. A record 83 candidates initially applied to run, but only 12 were approved, including Biya. The opposition candidates have expressed a desire to consolidate their efforts behind a single leader, but they are struggling to reach a consensus. Formal campaigning is set to commence on September 27.

In the capital, Yaoundé, local residents are already skeptical about the election’s outcome. Elvis Nghobo, a food vendor, voiced a common sentiment: “It is needless voting when it is clear that Paul Biya will always be declared winner.”

While some candidates are keen to unify, others appear more focused on individual ambitions rather than collective progress. Tomaino Ndam Njoya, the only female candidate and a mayor, indicated her willingness to support a consensus candidate, emphasizing the need for change. “That would be the price to pay to finally offer the Cameroonian people the change they expect and deserve,” she stated.

The lack of a formidable challenger for Biya is indicative of the opposition’s historical weakness. Wilson Tamfuh, a professor of public and international law, remarked that the need for a consensus highlights the opposition’s inability to independently challenge the ruling party.

As the election date approaches, the outcome remains uncertain, but the challenges facing the opposition are clear. With a significant portion of the population living in poverty—estimated at 43% by U.N. standards—the stakes for the Cameroonian people are higher than ever. The election will not only test the resilience of the opposition but also the country’s democratic processes, as it seeks to navigate a path toward potential reform and stability.