Hezbollah Regroups One Year After Loss of Leader Nasrallah

Hezbollah is showing signs of recovery one year after the assassination of its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, during an intense conflict with Israel. The militant group faced significant military and political setbacks, leading many to speculate about its future. Yet, as the anniversary of Nasrallah’s death approaches, analysts and observers are noting that Hezbollah is beginning to regroup.

In an interview with The Associated Press, senior Hezbollah political official Mohammed Fneish described the loss of Nasrallah as a “very painful blow” but emphasized that Hezbollah operates differently from typical political organizations. “Hezbollah is not a party in the usual sense that when it loses its leader, the party becomes weak,” Fneish stated. He highlighted the group’s ability to quickly fill leadership roles and maintain its operational stance.

Despite assessments from an anonymous Israeli military official indicating a decline in Hezbollah’s influence, the official acknowledged that the group is actively attempting to rebuild its military capabilities. “The likelihood of a large-scale attack against Israel is considered low,” the official noted, but added that rebuilding efforts are expected to expand.

Hezbollah’s resilience was evident during the conflict that erupted following the October 7, 2023, attack led by Hamas on southern Israel. The group continued to engage in combat even as Israeli forces advanced into southern Lebanon, gaining more territory than they had previously held. This ongoing conflict has resulted in near-daily Israeli airstrikes aimed at Hezbollah positions.

Fneish admitted that Hezbollah suffered a setback when the Syrian government, an ally, faced a rebel offensive in December 2023, disrupting vital supply routes from Iran. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government has committed to disarming Hezbollah by year-end, a demand from both the United States and Saudi Arabia, which the group has firmly rejected.

Critics within Lebanon have expressed skepticism about Hezbollah’s claims of remaining a powerful force. Elias Hankash, a Lebanese lawmaker and frequent critic, argued that Hezbollah’s leadership is out of touch with reality. “Hezbollah did not defend the Lebanese, nor itself, nor its weapons, nor its command,” he said.

Despite these criticisms, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack warned against underestimating the group’s capabilities. In an interview, he mentioned that many Lebanese believe Hezbollah is not in a rebuilding phase, but he asserted, “They’re rebuilding.”

Funding remains a contentious issue for Hezbollah, as the Israeli official noted challenges in securing adequate financial support from Iran. However, Barrack suggested that Hezbollah may still be receiving substantial funds—reportedly up to $60 million per month—from various sources, despite efforts to cut off its financing.

Fneish described Hezbollah’s financial situation as “normal,” asserting that its institutions continue to function effectively, including healthcare and social services, in addition to its military operations.

Hezbollah’s identity has been significantly shaped by Nasrallah, who has been a key figure since the group’s inception in 1982. His assassination marked a pivotal moment, as it not only eliminated a prominent leader but also led to the death of his successor, Hashem Safieddine, shortly thereafter. The group appointed Naim Kassem as its new leader, but many perceive Kassem as lacking the charisma that defined Nasrallah’s leadership.

Political analyst Bashir Saade observed that Hezbollah’s identity is “shaken without Nasrallah because it lost the pillar of the identity.” However, Fneish countered this view, insisting that Nasrallah represented, but was not the entirety of, Hezbollah’s identity.

In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s death, Hezbollah’s military wing has largely gone underground as it seeks to mitigate vulnerabilities that were exploited by Israeli intelligence. An anonymous Hezbollah official noted that the group is now relying less on technology, which had been a significant factor in Israel’s successful targeting of its leaders.

The situation in Lebanon is complex, with growing pressure for Hezbollah to disarm amid ongoing reconstruction delays in war-affected areas. Political commentator Sultan Suleiman noted that this pressure has led to a rallying of support for Hezbollah in municipal elections, where the group and its allies secured victories in traditional strongholds.

Public sentiment appears to be shifting among some members of Hezbollah’s base. For instance, Lebanese journalist Jad Hamouch noted that initial calls for disarmament have given way to a desire among some to retain weapons in light of Israeli actions in the region.

Residents of border villages, like Amira Jaafar, who lost her son in the conflict, expressed unwavering support for Hezbollah. “Despite all of Hezbollah’s losses, including the death of its ‘great leader’ Nasrallah, we are still strong and there are many young men ready to fight until their last breath,” she stated.

The Lebanese state faces a dilemma regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah. A western diplomat, speaking anonymously, highlighted the challenges confronting the Lebanese army, which is underfunded and ill-equipped to confront a well-trained militia. “I don’t see any coming back on this (disarmament decision), but I don’t see how it will go forward either,” the diplomat remarked.

As Hezbollah navigates the aftermath of Nasrallah’s death and the ongoing challenges it faces, its capacity to regroup and reassert itself as a significant player in Lebanese and regional politics remains to be seen.