Study Reveals World on Track for 57 More Superhot Days Annually

A recent study indicates that the world is projected to experience an additional 57 superhot days each year by the end of the century. This alarming trend disproportionately affects smaller, poorer nations, while larger carbon-emitting countries face comparatively fewer increases. The research highlights the significant impact of climate action taken since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which has averted even greater temperature rises.

Impact of the Paris Agreement

Conducted by the international climate science consortium World Weather Attribution alongside Climate Central, the study utilized computer simulations to assess the current and projected number of superhot days across more than 200 countries. The findings revealed that without the emissions reduction efforts initiated by the Paris Agreement, the world would be on course for an additional 114 superhot days annually, a stark contrast to the 57 predicted under current commitments.

The report defines superhot days as those exceeding the 90th percentile of temperatures recorded between 1991 and 2020. Since 2015, the global average has already increased by 11 superhot days. Co-author and Vice President for Science at Climate Central, Kristina Dahl, emphasized the potential for suffering due to climate change, stating, “There will be pain and suffering because of climate change.” However, she also noted that the difference between warming scenarios reflects positive efforts made in recent years.

Disparities in Heat Increases

According to the report, the most pronounced increases in superhot days will be felt by countries that have contributed minimally to global emissions. For instance, Panama is expected to face 149 additional superhot days by the century’s end, while the top ten countries most affected—largely small island nations—produce only 1% of the greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere. In contrast, larger contributors to carbon emissions, such as the United States, China, and India, will see increases of only 23 to 30 superhot days each.

This disparity illustrates the uneven burden of climate change, a sentiment echoed by climate scientist Andrew Weaver from the University of Victoria, who remarked, “The impacts of global warming are going to disproportionally affect developing nations that historically haven’t emitted significant quantities of greenhouse gases.”

Looking at specific events, the report notes that the intense heat wave that affected southern Europe in 2023 is now 70% more likely than it would have been a decade ago, with temperatures estimated to be 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than before the Paris Agreement. Future projections suggest that similar heat waves could reach temperatures 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter by the century’s end if current trajectories remain unchanged.

The implications of these findings are profound, particularly concerning public health. Co-author Friederike Otto from Imperial College London indicated that the number of people affected by these additional hot days will likely reach “tens of thousands or millions.” Heat waves already contribute to significant mortality rates globally, and the additional superhot days will exacerbate this trend.

As the world grapples with these challenges, the data underscores the urgent need for enhanced climate action to mitigate the effects of rising temperatures, particularly for the nations that will be most severely impacted.