Brandon School Division Reports Surge in Student Enrolment for 2024-25

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has experienced a notable increase in student mobility for the 2024-25 academic year, with net enrolment growth surpassing that of the previous year. This trend indicates a significant shift in the district’s demographics and has prompted BSD officials to refine their tracking methods to better understand and respond to these changes.

Enrolment Growth and Mobility Trends

According to data shared by Superintendent Mathew Gustafson, the overall enrolment for BSD rose by 324 students following September 30, 2023, with an additional increase of 201 students in the subsequent four months. This cumulative net mobility for the 2024-25 school year was 55 students higher than the previous year, suggesting a consistent upward trajectory in student enrolment.

“By examining mobility on a month-by-month basis, we found that our largest growth doesn’t always occur in September,” Gustafson stated. He noted that substantial increases were also observed in October, during semester changes in January and February, and again in the spring months of April and May. This detailed approach allows BSD administrators to gain insights into when students are most likely to enter or exit the school system, which is crucial for budget planning, as BSD sets its annual budget in March.

The division reported a total of 1,110 instances of students transferring into new schools during the 2024-25 academic year, alongside 783 instances of students transferring out. While these trends align with historical patterns, BSD continues to investigate the underlying reasons for the peaks in mobility, particularly in spring.

Factors Influencing Student Mobility

Gustafson identified several key factors contributing to this increase in student mobility. Immigration plays a significant role, as families relocate to Brandon from various regions, including other provinces and countries. He explained, “Housing also plays a significant role, as families renting or purchasing new homes often trigger moves within the city’s schools.”

The timing of family relocations is often linked to academic calendars, especially for families moving from countries with different school schedules. “Often, families prefer to wait until their school year concludes before making a move,” Gustafson added. “If their academic year ends in March, it’s expected that we see higher enrolment in April and May.”

To enhance its forecasting capabilities, BSD is now incorporating housing development data into its enrolment projections. Gustafson mentioned, “By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, we estimate how many students each new development could add.” This modelling was instrumental in shaping the recent catchment area changes for the Braecrest School, redirecting projected growth from Kirkcaldy Heights to George Fitton School. Early indicators suggest that the changes are effective, with approximately 50 students already utilizing the new bus route to George Fitton.

As BSD continues to grow, the financial implications cannot be overlooked. With provincial funding tied to student numbers, Gustafson anticipates an increase in funding for the upcoming year. However, he cautioned that this funding may not cover the full additional costs associated with the rising enrolment. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” he explained, indicating that local levies and property assessments would be necessary to bridge the gap.

Gustafson emphasized the importance of BSD’s expanding data set, now in its third year of tracking. “With two years of consistent patterns and a third year underway, we can start making more reliable predictions,” he stated. This robust data collection enables the division to plan staffing, facility needs, and budgets more accurately, aligning them with real-time developments in the schools.

As BSD navigates these changes, the commitment to understanding and adapting to student mobility will remain central to its strategic planning efforts.