Brandon School Division Reports Significant Growth in Student Mobility

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has reported a notable increase in student mobility for the 2024-25 academic year. This year sees a net enrolment growth that surpasses the previous school year’s figures, indicating a continued upward trend in student numbers.

According to Superintendent Mathew Gustafson, who addressed the board last week, BSD’s overall enrolment grew by a total of 324 students by September 30 of last year. In the subsequent four months, an additional 201 students joined the division. Gustafson highlighted that the cumulative net mobility in 2024-25 was 55 students higher than the previous academic year, suggesting an ongoing rise in enrolment.

Understanding the Trends in Student Movement

Gustafson explained that the division has begun to track student movements on a monthly basis, revealing patterns that could influence future staffing and budgetary decisions. “By looking at mobility month by month, we found that our largest growth doesn’t always happen in September,” Gustafson noted. He pointed out that significant increases often occur in October, during the semester change in January or February, and again in April or May.

This month-by-month analysis provides BSD administrators with valuable insights into when students are most likely to enter or exit the system. This understanding is crucial as the division sets its annual budget in March, prior to the peak periods of student movement.

During the 2024-25 school year, BSD recorded 1,110 instances of students transferring into its schools, alongside 783 instances of students transferring out. While these trends align with previous years, BSD is actively seeking to understand the reasons behind mobility peaks, particularly in the spring season.

Factors Influencing Student Mobility

Several contributing factors appear to drive these changes in student numbers. Gustafson cited immigration as a significant factor, noting that families are relocating to Brandon from both within Manitoba and other provinces, as well as from abroad. “Housing also plays a significant role, as families renting or purchasing new homes often trigger moves within the city’s schools,” he explained.

Gustafson also mentioned that families arriving from regions with different school calendars often prefer to move once their academic year concludes. “If their academic year ends in March, it makes sense that we see higher enrolment in April and May,” he added.

In response to these insights, BSD is now incorporating housing development data into its enrolment forecasting. “By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, we estimate how many students each new development could add,” Gustafson stated. This analytical approach recently informed a catchment area change, redirecting projected growth from Kirkcaldy Heights to George Fitton School to better balance capacity. Early indications confirm the accuracy of these projections, with around 50 students already utilizing the new bus route to George Fitton.

The division’s ongoing growth is expected to have financial implications, as provincial funding is linked to student enrolment numbers. Gustafson anticipates an increase in funding for next year but clarified that it would not fully cover the additional costs associated with the growing student population. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” he said, noting that local levies and property assessments would help bridge the gap.

Gustafson emphasized the importance of the division’s growing data set, now entering its third year. “With consistent patterns emerging, we can now start to make more reliable predictions,” he remarked. “This gives us more confidence to plan staffing, space, and budgets that reflect what’s actually happening in our schools.”

The ongoing analysis and strategic adjustments by BSD underline the division’s commitment to adapting to the evolving educational landscape in Brandon.