Toronto Schools Split Over Lottery Admissions Impact on Quality

A significant shift in admissions policy has sparked debate within the Toronto District School Board (TDSB) regarding specialty programs in arts, math, science, and technology. The decision in 2022 to replace merit-based admissions with a lottery system has drawn mixed reactions from students, educators, and parents. Critics argue that the lottery has diminished program quality and increased dropout rates, while supporters maintain it offers fairer access to educational opportunities.

Attendance at student clubs at Marc Garneau Collegiate has significantly declined, according to Grade 12 student Victor Jiang. As a participant in the school’s TOPS program, which focuses on math and science, Jiang attributes the drop in engagement to the lottery system. He claims that the random selection process has diluted the curriculum, as students enter with varying skill levels, ultimately harming the student community. “It profoundly hurts the student community,” Jiang states, adding that an update to the admissions policy is reportedly forthcoming, with applications for the next academic year opening in November.

The TDSB has faced criticism from a number of students, parents, and educators who believe the lottery has failed to enhance diversity and has instead led to increased attrition. Some parents are allegedly steering their children into programs without genuine interest, resulting in higher dropout rates. Others argue that the lottery system provides a level playing field, allowing all students an equal chance at admission.

Previously, admissions to these sought-after high school programs were determined by merit, requiring auditions, exams, portfolios, and essays. The 2022 policy change established a centralized Student Interest Programs system, opening applications to all students. When programs are oversubscribed, spots are awarded by lottery, prioritizing underrepresented groups, including Indigenous students, and reserving 20 percent of seats for Black, Latin American, and Middle Eastern students. In math, science, and technology programs, half of the spots are allocated to female students.

Supporters of the lottery, like Ayan Kailie, whose daughter is a Grade 11 student at Etobicoke School of the Arts (ESA), believe that it creates fair opportunities for talented students from lower-income families. Kailie highlights the challenges of affording art supplies that could enhance a portfolio under the former merit-based system. She emphasizes that the lottery allows children from diverse backgrounds to gain access to specialized programs, removing financial barriers that might otherwise exclude them.

On the other hand, Patricia Warnock, head of ESA’s music-theatre program, advocates for a return to merit-based admissions, albeit with equitable measures. She points out that prior to the lottery, ESA made concerted efforts to promote access by redesigning audition processes and providing free workshops. Warnock notes that the school faced restrictions on outreach efforts, which were initially aimed at encouraging a broader applicant pool from disadvantaged communities.

Data indicates that the lottery system has led to increased dropout rates. Last year, nine Grade 9 students transferred out, a significant rise from one student in the 2019-20 academic year. Additionally, the Grade 11 musical theatre class has shrunk from 44 students to 35 since their entry in Grade 9. Warnock observes a decline in engagement, with students participating in programs without genuine interest, often due to parental pressure.

At Rosedale Heights School of the Arts, Grade 12 student Hailey Jackson echoes concerns about the lottery system. She emphasizes the loss of school spirit, noting fewer students participating in traditional events like Halloween celebrations. Jackson advocates for reinstating a merit-based admissions policy, arguing that it allows for equity while still ensuring that students who genuinely belong in these programs are not overlooked.

Parents have also voiced their concerns. Michael Danishevsky, co-chair of the parent council at William Lyon Mackenzie Collegiate Institute, calls the lottery a “failed experiment” that has led to lowered academic standards and increased dropout rates. He contends that the new system has resulted in classrooms filled with students of varying preparedness, creating challenges for teachers.

Research conducted by Danishevsky and Marcin Peski, an economist at the University of Toronto, highlights the negative impact of the lottery on student performance. Their report, commissioned by the advocacy group Save Our Schools, analyzed results from national math contests and found that TDSB performance declined following the introduction of the lottery. In 2024, no TDSB schools made the Top 20 rankings in the Grade 10 contest, a stark difference from previous years.

As the TDSB prepares to review its admissions policy, the debate over the effectiveness of the lottery system continues. Stakeholders on both sides are advocating for changes that will enhance educational opportunities while addressing concerns about program quality and student engagement. The outcome of this review could have lasting implications for the district’s specialty programs and the students they serve.