Flight Delays Set to Worsen as Controller Shortages Persist

Flight delays across the United States are expected to worsen through the end of 2025 due to a combination of chronic staffing shortages and an overwhelmed air traffic control system. On October 27 and 28, nearly 7,000 flight delays were reported nationwide, with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) citing significant controller absences as a key factor. Staffing shortages, particularly at major hubs, have exacerbated the situation, leaving the air traffic system struggling to cope with increasing passenger volumes.

The recent government shutdown has pushed an already fragile air traffic control system to its limits. According to the FAA, 44% of the delays on those days were attributed to controller absences, a sharp increase from the typical 5%. The situation was particularly dire at airports such as Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), where ground stops were implemented due to staffing challenges. With record passenger numbers anticipated in 2025, travelers should prepare for ongoing disruptions.

The Roots of Frequent Flight Delays

Flight delays can be traced to several major categories. Internal airline issues, such as crew scheduling difficulties, aircraft maintenance, and turnaround delays, contribute to the problem. Additionally, late-arriving aircraft and national air system capacity constraints have become increasingly significant sources of delays. Weather events, particularly extreme conditions, and security issues also play a role.

The cascading nature of these delays means that when air traffic control constrains arrivals at a major hub, aircraft are forced to hold or wait on the ground. This affects subsequent flights, leading to a ripple effect that compounds the problem across the network. In 2025, the primary challenge is the national system’s capacity constraints, as the FAA and associated control towers operate with high absenteeism and minimal staffing buffers. This situation results in fewer aircraft arriving per hour and necessitates greater ramp metering.

As airlines operate leaner fleets and maintain high load factors, even minor disruptions can trigger a chain reaction of delays. The root cause of this growing challenge lies in the ongoing shortage of air traffic controllers, which has persisted for years.

Current Trends Impacting Delays

The current wave of flight delays is particularly acute due to three intersecting trends. First, there is a surge in demand, with US carriers reporting near-record passenger volumes and strong holiday travel forecasts. This heightened demand makes any capacity constraint more visible, amplifying delays.

Secondly, the air traffic control system has less room to accommodate disruptions because of thinner staffing, outdated equipment, and limited spare aircraft. Finally, external risk factors, including increased likelihood of severe weather as winter approaches, are further constraining operations. These trends create a perfect storm, leading to higher costs for passengers, as missed connections and increased airline compensation become more common.

Infrastructure at airports is also facing severe stress, with runway closures and de-icing delays adding to the backlog. These delays go beyond mere inconveniences; they undermine the flexibility of airline schedules and increase operational risks. As a result, the expectation of normal yearly delay levels has shifted dramatically.

At the heart of the current delays is a chronic shortage of certified air traffic controllers. The FAA has reported being several thousand controllers short of its staffing targets, particularly in high-demand facilities like New York TRACON and Atlanta Center. Training a new controller requires one to three years, depending on the complexity of the facility, meaning that even if hiring efforts ramp up immediately, the impact will not be felt for some time.

The situation has been further complicated by the ongoing government shutdown, which has intensified the air traffic control crisis. With federal employees, including controllers and TSA officers, working without pay, absenteeism has surged. The FAA has reported increasing sick calls and no-shows, which has resulted in traffic restrictions at major airports. Currently, 40 of the busiest airports face mandated flight reductions, with potential cuts reaching 10% of capacity if the shutdown continues.

These reductions highlight the staffing pressures affecting air travel and disrupt the hiring, training, and maintenance processes that could alleviate the strain on the system. As a result, passengers are likely to experience delays that originate from the air traffic control system rather than airline or weather-related causes.

Even if funding to resolve these issues resumes soon, the challenges will not vanish overnight. Staffing gaps created during the shutdown will take time to fill, as new controllers will still require years of training. Coupled with the backlog of infrastructure maintenance and modernization, the path to restoring resilience will be long and complicated.

As the year progresses, US flight delays are likely to worsen as the air traffic control system continues to lack the necessary capacity. The ongoing government shutdown has exacerbated an already critical shortage of controllers, leading to cascading delays across the country. High passenger demand, limited airline and airport buffers, and increasing winter weather risks compound these issues, causing local disruptions to escalate into widespread gridlock.

In summary, unless substantial progress is made in addressing staffing and infrastructure challenges, passengers can expect sustained capacity constraints at major hubs for the foreseeable future.