Novo Nordisk Faces Sales Decline as Semaglutide Patents Expire

Novo Nordisk is anticipating a decrease in sales due to the expiration of its patents for semaglutide GLP-1 drug treatments in Canada. The Danish pharmaceutical company, known for its popular products like Wegovy and Ozempic, reported in an earnings call that it expects demand to weaken in 2026. This outlook is attributed to “intensifying competition” as generic alternatives enter the market following Health Canada’s recent approvals of similar treatments.

During the earnings call held on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen highlighted that the company’s “Semaglutide Loss of Exclusivity” or “Sema LOE” will impact group sales by low single digits. Canada is expected to be the largest contributor to this decline. Knudsen noted, “There could be both an upside and a downside to our guidance, depending on the pace of approval of generics in Canada.”

Health Canada approved several generic treatment options for diabetes management and weight control last month. The expiration of Novo Nordisk’s patents in Canada has opened the door for other manufacturers to develop competing products. According to Canada’s Drug Agency, the recommended maintenance dose for Wegovy could cost Canadians around $5,000 per year.

In late 2022, Health Canada received nine submissions from various companies, including Sandoz Canada, Apotex, and Teva Canada, seeking approval for semaglutide treatments similar to the established brands. A spokesperson from Health Canada, Mark Johnson, stated in an email to The Canadian Press that there is significant interest in introducing generics to lower costs associated with these highly prescribed drugs.

Despite the challenges posed by generic competition, Novo Nordisk remains optimistic about its oral semaglutide treatments, which could help mitigate the anticipated sales decline from injectable versions. Executive Vice-President Dave Moore reported encouraging early uptake of the Wegovy pill, with total prescriptions reaching around 50,000 in the week ending January 23, 2024. Notably, approximately 45,000 of these prescriptions were through self-pay, indicating strong demand.

Moore emphasized that most prescriptions seem to be for new patients, suggesting that the market for anti-obesity medications is expanding. In addition to Wegovy, Novo Nordisk’s Rybelsus pill, which received Health Canada approval last month, is currently the only oral semaglutide available in the country. Rybelsus is designed to reduce the risk of heart disease and type 2 diabetes.

In the competitive landscape, Eli Lilly is also developing a GLP-1 pill, although it has not yet received approval in the U.S. or Canada. Eli Lilly projects a revenue increase of about 25% in 2026, in contrast to Novo Nordisk’s expectation of a sales decline ranging from 5% to 13% compared to 2025. This disparity highlights the shifting dynamics in the diabetes and obesity treatment markets as patent expirations reshape competitive strategies.