Czech Election May Shift Support for Ukraine and EU Policies

A parliamentary election in the Czech Republic on October 3-4, 2024, could significantly alter the country’s foreign policy stance, particularly regarding Ukraine and the European Union. Billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is positioned as the frontrunner, potentially leading the country away from its current pro-Western alignment. This shift may echo the pro-Russian policies seen in neighboring Hungary and Slovakia.

Opinion polls indicate that Babiš is likely to reclaim power from the ruling coalition, which is headed by Prime Minister Petr Pavel. Pavel’s coalition of three conservative parties, known as Together, has focused its campaign on the threats posed by Russia, emphasizing security and freedom. Their campaign slogan, “Vote for freedom! Vote for security!” aims to rally support against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Babiš, whose political rhetoric mirrors that of other populist leaders in Central Europe, has criticized Pavel for various national issues, including the energy crisis and rising inflation. He has pledged to reverse key policies, including reforms related to pensions and aid for Ukraine, should he come to power.

Potential Alliances and Foreign Relations

If Babiš emerges victorious, he would join the ranks of leaders like Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia, both of whom have resisted military aid to Ukraine and maintained strong economic ties with Russia. Babiš has previously allied with Orbán to form a new parliamentary group called “Patriots for Europe,” which unites hard-right factions across Europe. This coalition is characterized by anti-migrant sentiments and skepticism toward EU climate policies.

While Babiš has publicly distanced himself from pro-Russian sentiments, he is expected to abandon a Czech initiative that has successfully procured approximately 3.5 million artillery shells for Ukraine. This could undermine Ukraine’s defense efforts at a critical time.

Babiš’s Controversial Legacy

Babiš’s political career has been marked by controversy. He was born in Slovakia and has faced legal challenges, including allegations of past collaboration with the Communist-era secret police. In 2019, he faced massive protests demanding his resignation due to conflicts of interest involving EU subsidies. Despite these challenges, he remains a formidable figure in Czech politics.

His business empire, Agrofert, which consists of around 200 companies, benefits from EU subsidies, raising questions about his commitment to EU membership. Although he does not advocate for leaving the EU or NATO, his potential alliances could lead to significant changes in policy, particularly regarding migration and environmental regulations.

The election landscape is further complicated by the presence of far-left and far-right coalition partners that could support Babiš. The Enough Coalition, made up of fringe groups, and the Freedom and Direct Democracy party, known for its strict anti-migrant stance, are potential allies. These groups have been accused of spreading pro-Russian propaganda through a network of nearly 300 fake TikTok accounts, garnering millions of views and influencing public opinion.

As the election approaches, authorities are investigating these allegations, highlighting the growing concern over misinformation in Czech politics. Babiš’s potential coalition partners may not recognize Russia as a threat, further distancing the Czech Republic from mainstream EU positions.

The outcome of this election will have lasting implications for both the Czech Republic and its relationship with the EU and Ukraine. With Babiš poised for a comeback, the international community watches closely as the Czech electorate prepares to cast their votes.