Brandon School Division Anticipates Student Growth Through 2030

The Brandon School Division (BSD) is poised for significant growth in student enrolment over the next five years. Projections indicate that the number of students could rise to between approximately 10,360 and 11,440 by the year 2030. This information was presented to the school board during a recent meeting, highlighting the division’s ongoing expansion.

Two distinct enrolment projection models were introduced, both grounded in historical growth data. The first model utilized data from the past five years, capturing recent growth trends. The second model, explained by BSD’s research and evaluation analyst Johnny Dubois, relied on a ten-year average, which Dubois described as more “typical” and less affected by recent spikes in enrolment.

Currently, BSD serves just over 10,000 students. The five-year growth model anticipates that the higher growth rates experienced in recent years will persist, while the ten-year model suggests a more moderate pace. According to Dubois, applying these growth rates to current enrolment figures results in two projections: under the slower ten-year growth rate, enrolment could reach just over 10,360 students by 2030, while the faster five-year trend could see enrolment rise to approximately 11,440 students.

Dubois emphasized the inherent uncertainty in these projections, noting, “Importantly, every projection is wrong. A final enrolment figure falling anywhere between the two estimates would not be surprising.” He explained that a key unknown factor is whether the recent rapid growth signifies a long-term trend or a temporary fluctuation.

Despite these uncertainties, both models indicate continued growth rather than a decline. This year, enrolment increased by 77 students, or 0.8%, bringing the division’s total to 10,080 students. Over the past five years, BSD has seen an increase of 1,042 students, with growth over the last decade exceeding 1,300 students.

During the presentation, Denis Labossiere, secretary-treasurer of BSD, pointed out a notable difference in growth patterns before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, the average annual increase was about 120 students, but this figure surged to 256 students annually in the five years following the pandemic. The ten-year average increase stands at approximately 152 students per year.

Looking ahead, BSD projects an enrolment of 10,214 students for the 2026-27 school year, reflecting an increase of 134 students, or 1.3%. Labossiere confirmed that this projection will not affect the division’s budget assumptions from the previous year.

Accurate enrolment estimates are crucial for budgeting and staffing decisions, according to Superintendent Mathew Gustafson. “If we overestimate the enrolment, we place extra budgetary pressures that can impact the ratio,” Gustafson stated. “If we underestimate, we have more students than staff planned for, which increases pressure on class sizes.”

Gustafson reassured the board that BSD currently has the capacity to accommodate the projected increase of 134 students while maintaining existing staffing ratios. He also noted factors that have influenced recent enrolment numbers, including a record number of graduates exiting the system last June and lower kindergarten entry levels.

With these projections in mind, BSD is preparing for a future marked by sustained growth, positioning the division to continue meeting the educational needs of its expanding student population.