Oilers Surge as Skinner Struggles After Trade to Penguins

The Edmonton Oilers and goaltender Stuart Skinner have experienced contrasting fortunes since Skinner’s trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins on December 12, 2023. In a deal that sent Skinner, along with veteran defenseman Brett Kulak and a second-round draft pick in 2029, to Pittsburgh in exchange for goaltender Tristan Jarry, both teams have seen significant shifts in their performance.

Skinner’s transition to Pittsburgh has not yielded the desired results. Since the trade, he has played three games, recording no wins and three losses with a save percentage of just .831. Meanwhile, Jarry began his tenure with the Oilers strong, achieving three wins and no losses alongside an .887 save percentage before suffering a groin injury. In his absence, AHL call-up Connor Ingram has stepped in, boasting two wins, one loss, and a save percentage of .915. Additionally, Skinner’s backup in Edmonton, Calvin Pickard, has excelled, accumulating a save percentage of .924 across four games, which includes two wins and two losses.

As a result of these changes, the Oilers have surged to an impressive six wins and three losses without Skinner. This performance has propelled them into first place in the Pacific Division, showcasing a notable improvement in their overall team save percentage, which now sits at .907, ranking ninth in the NHL. Prior to the trade, the Oilers struggled significantly, ranking 31st in the league with a save percentage of .873.

This sudden enhancement in Edmonton’s goaltending raises questions about the team’s defensive performance. An analysis of shot metrics reveals that the Oilers have actually allowed more high-quality scoring chances, known as Grade A shots, since the trade. In the first 31 games of the season, Edmonton conceded an average of 13.9 Grade A shots per game, including 6.1 of the most dangerous 5-alarm shots. However, in the subsequent nine games, those numbers have increased to 16.1 Grade A shots and 7.9 5-alarm shots per game.

Given these statistics, one might expect Edmonton’s goalies to struggle under increased pressure. Yet the opposite has occurred, prompting speculation about the reasons behind this performance shift. One possibility is that the motivations driving Jarry, Pickard, and Ingram have led to heightened competitiveness, enabling them to perform at their best in Skinner’s absence.

The small sample size of nine games complicates any definitive conclusions. It could simply be that the Oilers’ goalies are on a hot streak while Skinner is experiencing a downturn. Regardless of the explanation, the contrasting paths of the Oilers and Skinner since the trade highlight the unpredictable nature of professional sports and the impact of player transactions. As the season progresses, it will be intriguing to see how both the Oilers and Skinner adapt to their new circumstances.