Socialists Lead in Paris; Far Right Gains Ground in Local Polls

Initial projections from the first round of local elections in France indicate a significant lead for the Socialist candidate Emmanuel Gregoire in Paris, while the far-right National Rally (RN) appears to be gaining ground in several southern cities. The elections, held on March 10, 2024, serve as a crucial political barometer ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for next year.

The results show that Edouard Philippe, a centrist and former prime minister, is well-positioned to maintain his role as mayor of Le Havre in a second-round election set for next Sunday. Philippe is considered a strong contender for the 2027 presidential race and has emphasized his re-election as essential for his future political ambitions. Analysts view these local elections as indicative of potential voting patterns and strategies that may emerge in the presidential contest, particularly with President Emmanuel Macron stepping down after two terms.

Far-Right Gains in Key Cities

The RN sees these local elections as an opportunity to demonstrate its governance capabilities. Official results show that the far-right’s candidate in Perpignan secured re-election with 50.61 percent of votes, making it the largest city under the RN’s control, with a population of around 100,000. In Marseille, France’s second-largest city, the incumbent left-wing mayor is in a tight race against a far-right challenger. Estimates indicate that an RN ally in Nice, with a population of approximately 350,000, currently holds a lead of about ten points.

In Toulon, another southern city with over 150,000 residents, the RN candidate is also ahead, further solidifying the party’s stronghold in the region. RN leader Jordan Bardella addressed supporters, stating, “Change won’t wait for 2027. It starts next Sunday. It starts in seven days.” He also claimed that several outgoing RN mayors were re-elected in the first round, marking a significant moment for the party.

Strategic Alliances and Voter Turnout

The elections, covering approximately 35,000 villages, towns, and city boroughs, are conducted in two rounds over consecutive Sundays. In over 90 percent of communes, mayors are expected to be elected in the first round. However, many larger cities will progress to second rounds, leading politicians to consider cross-party alliances against key opponents.

In Paris, Gregoire leads former culture minister Rachida Dati, who aims to reclaim control of the city from the left, which has governed for the past quarter-century. Historically, major cities in France have been managed by centre-left or right-wing parties, whereas the RN, along with other leftist factions, has struggled to establish a robust local presence. In the northern town of Roubaix, a hard-left candidate has taken a commanding lead with 45 percent of the vote, potentially making it the largest city governed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party if he prevails in the second round.

Voter turnout for this election was reported to be the lowest in years, estimated between 56 percent and 58.5 percent, compared to 63.55 percent during the same elections in 2014. François Kraus of the IFOP polling institute noted, “We have reached a record low,” with only the 2020 elections held during the COVID-19 pandemic showing lower participation.

As the second round approaches, forming alliances against the far right presents challenges, especially after a recent incident involving violence attributed to hard-left factions. Olivier Faure, leader of the Socialist Party, expressed the need to offer “new hope for 2027,” while Mélenchon urged the left to unite to combat the rise of the hard-right. Bardella has called for cooperation with centre-right politicians, underlining the urgency of these elections.

Political scientist Nonna Mayer emphasized that while local elections typically avoid national politicization, the outcomes will still provide insights into the public’s mood and the electoral dynamics of key parties. The final results will be closely monitored as they may set the tone for the upcoming presidential elections.