Experts Analyze Canada’s Population Growth Decline and Future

Population growth in Canada is set to stagnate in 2026 for the second consecutive year, according to the federal parliamentary budget officer (PBO). This trend follows a period of record growth experienced over three previous years, highlighting a significant shift driven by changes in immigration policy and declining fertility rates. Experts suggest that this pattern is unlikely to change in the near future.

In a recent interview, Michael Haan, professor and director of the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre at Western University, explained that the current fertility rate in Canada stands at approximately 1.3 children per woman, a stark contrast to the average of 5.6 children per woman in the 1950s. He attributes this decline partly to economic factors, noting that raising children today comes with substantially higher costs compared to previous decades.

The PBO’s report emphasizes that recent population increases in Canada have been largely attributed to immigration. The document outlines the demographic implications of the federal Immigration Levels Plan, which is expected to shape the country’s growth from now until 2028. It points out that the natural population increase, defined as births minus deaths, has contributed minimally to growth due to low fertility rates and an aging demographic.

Statistics Canada reported earlier this year that Canada achieved a record low in fertility rates in 2024. This decline has been influenced by various socioeconomic and cultural changes, including higher educational attainment, increased participation in the workforce, and evolving social norms regarding family planning.

The federal government’s intent to reduce immigration levels aims to relieve pressure on public services and housing availability. However, Haan argues that this reduction will not significantly affect the slowing natural population growth. He suggests that for the foreseeable future, Canada’s primary, if not sole, source of population growth will continue to be immigration.

To reach a replacement-level birthrate of 2.1 children per woman, which is necessary for a stable population, Canada’s fertility rate would need to nearly double. Haan expressed skepticism about this occurring, stating, “If you want to see population growth, you’ve got to go above 2.1 and I just don’t see it coming.”

The implications of declining fertility rates are profound for Canada’s economy. Without a steady influx of newcomers, Haan warned that the economy could face severe labor shortages, especially as the existing workforce ages. He noted that a lack of young workers could lead to unforeseen challenges, including a shortage of caregivers for an aging population.

Despite the pressing economic need for immigration, Haan acknowledged the critiques concerning former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration, which oversaw significantly high immigration levels. He stated, “The Trudeau government kind of supercharged our immigrant admission program… it was way too much.”

Looking ahead, the reduction of immigration targets to pre-pandemic levels is anticipated to provide some relief for social services, according to Andrew Griffith, an immigration expert. He noted that this adjustment should allow for a better alignment between population growth and the capacity of public services, providing both social and political breathing space.

Griffith emphasized the importance of finding a balance in immigration policy. “More moderate growth is really something that allows society to adapt to the growth and to ensure that the quality of public services and the quality of life are good for both the people who are already here and the people who are arriving,” he said.

Canada is not alone in facing challenges associated with declining natural population growth. Several other developed nations, including Switzerland, Luxembourg, Finland, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea, have comparable or even lower fertility rates. As these countries also compete for skilled workers, Canada may find itself at a disadvantage in attracting talent, Griffith explained.

He concluded that Canada must adapt to this new reality while maintaining a high standard of living for both its existing and incoming populations. The future of Canada’s demographic landscape rests on the interplay between immigration policy, economic needs, and social adaptation in response to shifting population dynamics.